RBA旧闻一则

Totaro

The Reserve Bank of Australia has for the first time acknowledged parts of the property market could be prone to overheating, making it harder to deliver further interest rate cuts if the economy slumps further.
As speculation about whether the nation is entering a property bubble intensifies, the Reserve Bank issued a blunt warning that Australians who ramp up debt to buy investment homes should not expect the double-digit price gains of the late 1990s and 2000s.
“It is important that those purchasing property maintain realistic expectations,” the Reserve Bank said in its semi-annual financial stability review report, released on Wednesday.
The central bank highlighted the growing surge of borrowed money into housing, particularly in NSW, where two out of every five dollars lent by banks is being used to buy investment properties – the highest proportion in almost a decade.
The bank added to recent warnings by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority about self-managed superannuation funds, describing them as an unprecedented “vehicle for potentially speculative demand” that could distort property prices and increase volatility.
UBS fixed income analyst Matthew Johnson said the Reserve Bank was effectively reminding people that low interest rates and strong home price growth would not last forever.
“If the current increase in prices turns into a bit of froth, they’ve got two options – one is to raise rates, which I think would be a mistake – and the other is to work with APRA to control mortgage lending,” he said.
“And given the likely appreciation of the dollar if they raise rates, that would be better for the overall economy. It does make it less likely the Reserve Bank is going to cut rates in the next couple of meetings,” he said.
A report released by UBS’s team of banking analysts on Wednesday concludes Australia may have the world’s most leveraged landlords – many of home are on low-to-medium incomes.
“We do not believe that these implications have been fully considered by the banks, regulators or market participants,” Jonathan Mott, Chris Williams and Adam Lee said in a note to -investors.
They said the combination of record low interest rates, improving confidence and tight housing supply “have provided a platform for house price inflation in Australia”.
The analysts said a potential unemployment shock could lead to greater house price volatility as investors struggled to service their negatively geared property investments.
“Further, there is no emotional desire to ‘save the house’, implying large amounts of investment property could flood the market,” they said.
“How will this impact the economic cycle and owner occupied mortgagors? Perhaps past experiences and stress tests may be less relevant?
“While these issues may not matter near term, investors, banks and regulators need to consider the implications should rates eventually normalise or if unemployment rises further.”
The Reserve Bank noted that rising activity in the property market was not surprising given interest rate cuts.
However, it said that unlike during the years leading up to the 2008 global financial crisis, when property prices surged off the back of low interest rates and bank deregulation, “long-run future growth in dwelling prices might be expected to be more in line with income growth.”
The warning implies key pockets of the property market may already growing too fast for comfort.
House prices have climbed 6.4 per cent this year, led by a 9.4 per cent jump in Sydney – compared with annual wage growth running at around 3 per cent. “While increased financial risk-taking is an expected outcome of lower interest rates, it is important that households understand, and appropriately account for, the financial risks they take,” the Reserve Bank said.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans admonished commentators and -analysts stirring up concerns about a housing bubble building in Australia, but said the Reserve Bank had delivered “some responsible warnings”, including on the need to maintain lending practices given low interest rates.
The Reserve Bank said lenders were competing more aggressively by cutting rates, increasing broker commissions and waiving application fees.
It added that property lending was “an important area to watch in the period ahead as a sustained period of below average interest rates could increase speculative activity in the housing market and encourage marginal borrowers to increase debt”.
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9月25号的Financial Review，大意：
RBA首次承认部分房产由有过热现象，并警告投资者不要期待90或2000年前后的两位数增长

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