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发表于 2014-6-18 10:32:31
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本帖最后由 ITGUY68 于 2014-6-18 11:04 编辑
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IMF expects cost of borrowing to stay low long after crisis
By Chris Giles
The cost of borrowing in the global economy is likely to remain low long after the financial crisis fades in people’s memories and recovery gathers pace, new research from the International Monetary Fund showed on Thursday.
The fund predicted that although real rates would creep up from their exceptionally low post-crisis levels, there were “no compelling reasons to expect?.?.?.?[they] will quickly return to the average level of 2 per cent observed during the mid-2000s”
The forecast that money will remain cheap for a long time should encourage borrowers, including governments, to take on more debt, the IMF research department added, but would cause problems for providers of defined benefit savings.
The IMF research fits with the views recently outlined by leading central banks. The Bank of England said in February it expected normal interest rates to remain lower than in the past for a prolonged period of time. The US Federal Reserve echoed the BoE’s stance last month when it stated that “economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below the levels the committee views as normal in the longer run”.
But while central banks were announcing their likely reaction to global forces, the IMF research provides a rationale for the view that rates will stay lower for longer than usual.
Looking back at trends in real interest rates since the 1980s, the fund noted that their movements had become more global over time and rates were higher only in countries that were perceived as risky.
There has been a sharp fall in global real interest rates from levels around 6 per cent in 1983 to zero in 2012. The IMF research shows that dramatic changes in interest rates set by policy makers affected real interest rates most in the 1980s, but the increasingly strong fiscal positions in the 1990s also had a large effect in bringing them down.
Since the millennium, soaring savings in emerging markets, a desire for safer assets such as government bonds and a decline in investment in advanced economies pushed real interest rates lower still. Finally, the collapse of investment after the financial crisis led to the zero real interest rates that exist today.
As the recovery progresses, the IMF expects real interest rates to edge up, but sees no compelling reasons for them to return to the 2 per cent rates in the mid-2000s because it sees no end to the desire for safer assets or emerging economy savings rates.
Persistently low real interest rates help nations reduce debt servicing costs, making deficit reduction easier. The IMF’s research department is therefore recommending governments to use this opportunity and stimulate the economy via greater public investment.
“Some increases in debt-financed government spending, especially public investment, may not increase public debt in the medium term,” it argued.
The research was published in an early release of some of the chapters of the IMF’s spring World Economic Outlook, which also contained an analysis of the growth slowdown in emerging markets. Also chiming with the Fed, the IMF found that US monetary policy tightening could explain only around half of the weaker growth outlook in poorer countries and much of the rest was the result of domestic weakness.
The research will be used by richer countries to tell the emerging world to push through structural reforms rather than complain about the actions of the Fed.
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