澳元点位分析

dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:40:50

欢迎大家分享各自的分析，当然也欢迎加分捧场：）*$0.9450 Offers on approach
*$0.9429 76.4% of $0.9459-0.9330
*$0.9420 Medium offers
*$0.9410 Market stops, 61.8% of $0.9459-0.9330
*$0.9400 Medium offers (21-day ma)
*$0.9375/77 Asia high, 5-day ma
*$0.9350 Minor offers ($0.9349 - 55-day ma)
*$0.9333 ***Current market price 0536GMT Wednesday
*$0.9320 Medium demand, stops ($0.9325 - 3 Jul low)
*$0.9300 Strong demand, stops
*$0.9290 Market stops
*$0.9279 100-day ma
*$0.9258 5 Jun low
*$0.9250 Strong demand (50% of $0.8995-0.9505)
*$0.9229 3 Jun low个人短期看跌澳元，原因不明...可能是被Steven吓住了吧...

shdanding · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:52:08

本帖最后由 shdanding 于 2014-7-16 17:55 编辑 3 小时前上传
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dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:55:40

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-16 17:52
为什么加了分以后就看不见你的图了...Weak milk auctions and softer inflation will put some doubt in the minds of the RBNZ as to their next move and once again highlights the dangers of being the first to hike in an environment where many CB’s are still very much on an easing path. As I have stated for the past few weeks I think NZD has come close to its highs and the weight of carry positions combined with the continued effects on exports and now softer inflation should sufficiently shift the risks for a move lower. I continue to advocate a lower conviction. AUD isn’t quite so clear for me at the moment, with a certain amount of negativity already priced and a stubbornness to break out of the range I prefer advocating medium term downside with some window KO’s as opposed to an outright strong lower conviction in the cash space. Resistance: 0.9385, 0.9420/30, 0.9480
Support: 0.9330, 0.9280

dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:56:22

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-16 17:52
原来你又编辑了...我说呢...以为卷分跑路了...

shdanding · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:57:08

dingyipu 发表于 2014-7-16 17:55
为什么加了分以后就看不见你的图了...
发帖骗分啊原来的图太小了，换了张大图重新贴了。

dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 17:57:55

shdanding 发表于 2014-7-16 17:57
发帖骗分啊原来的图太小了，换了张大图重新贴了。
发现了：P

dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 18:04:37

AUDUSD rallied initially as Yellen’s pre-prepared speech hit the wire’s as the relatively dovish comments took us up to 0.9390/00 with the turn coming as she stated that improving data will speed up the timing and size of Fed funds rates. We open up on the 0.9320/40 support area feeling pretty heavy with no real reaction to slightly better than expected China GDP (7.5% vs consensus 7.4%),I remain short and will add through 0.9320 and any rally to 0.9360/70. NZD bashed on various fronts after Yellen followed by another shocking GDT auction with headline down 8.9% then finally 2Q CPI coming in lower than expected (+0.3% q/q +1.6% y/y vs consensus +0.4% q/q +1.8% y/y) taking us to a low so far of 0.8690.I got this move wrong and have now flipped short looking for an initial move to 0.8610/40 area (0.8610 100 dma and 0.8640 an old high),for today I would expect rallies limited to 0.8720/30. AUDNZD move higher began after the dairy auction taking us from 1.0640/50 and ultimately a curren

dingyipu · 发表于 2014-7-16 18:39:05

For now the July NFP low (0.9327) holds strong and as per the original plan we have taken back some shorts looking to re-sell on a rally towards 0.9360/70. Stops can be rolled very short term back through 0.9410/20 with next week building to be a busy week for the Aussie.