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发表于 2014-6-5 13:47:23
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The argument in the ________, at first glance, may sound like a well-reasoned logical position, backed by rigorous data of various sorts. But when put under close and critical examination, none of those data used in the reasoning process manages to carry through as weighty support of the argument.
开头
The assertion that ______ is not worth believing because the reasoning process, which leads to this conclusion, involves illegitimate analogy between _____________.
开头
The argument is unsound due to the lack of solid supporting evidence to substantiate the prediction made in it. The phenomena cited in the reasoning process of the argument are either indirect, hence weak, or, even worse, indicative of a trend other than the one assumed by the arguer.
开头
The assertion that_____ is poorly reasoned. Owing to its failure to certify the cause and effect factors and its simplistic use of analogy, the conclusion reached in the argument is invaild and probably misleading.
错误类比 A=》B
The argument is based on a false analogy.
Theoretically every object or system in the world is in certain respects unique. Yet practically speaking, people and things tend to look and act a lot alike. When there are enough similarities between two things, we can assume the claim that what is true of one is also true of the other. The key condition here for sound reasoning from analogy is that the two things must share characteristics relevant to the claim being made and does not have differences that would destroy the analogy. In the case of A and B, however, the condition for making analogical comparison in terms of future business prospect is not ripe.
错误类比
When drawing on the experience of other people’s success, we need to analyze the exact cause or causes of their success and make sure that sufficient similarities do exist between them and us to entail that what works for them will also work for us. Otherwise, the rote imitation is far from learning and may lead us to nowhere.
错误因果 A先于B发生=》A导致B
Simply because A happens before B does not mean that there is causal correlation between them, That is, that the change in one has caused the change in the other. To conduct an experiment to establish the causal relation between two events, variables should be controlled to the extent that the tested variable is the only one that undergoes some changes. Under this condition, should any changes follows, it can be attributed to tested variable with reasonable plausibility. In the case of _____.
错误因果 after this , because of this
the author has engaged in “after this, therefore because of this” reasoning. The only reason offered for believing that -___________ is the fact that the former preceded the latter. No additional evidence linking the two events is offered in the argument, thus leaving open the possibility that the two events are not causally related but merely correlated. This in turn leaves open the possibility that factors other than the one cited are responsible for __________.
错误决策
It is logically wrong to impose a dichotomous choice to a matter when there are more than two alternatives. In order to make the best decision as to how to cope with the observed problem, the cause of the problem must be accurately identified.
错误决策
The solution to a certain problem must be based on a clear understanding of the cause of the problem and the solution thus shaped should be able to address either the cause or the result of the problem. Logically incorrect or inaccurate causal relation, on the other hand, will lead to solutions irrelevant, and hence ineffective, to the problem in hand.
错误决策
When making decisions on alternatives, we should consider all the important benefits and setbacks associated with various alternatives and weigh them against each other to evaluate them comprehensively and choose the one with the greatest overall benefit.
错误决策
The author is presenting a false dilemma by imposing an either-or choice between two courses of action that need not be mutually exclusive.
错误类推 过去推知未来
When samples are used to make general claims about a particular group, the sample should be close enough in time to the generalization they are used to support, so that historical changes will not invalidate the generalization.______ Data obtained from the current samples can not be applied mechanically to the future group.
错误类推 单个=》全部
The author committed a logical fallacy known as hasty generalization. The author used the individual case of _______ as the sole example to reach a sweeping conclusion that _______.
In logic, if a certain relationship is repeatedly found in many events sharing a certain characteristics, then we may predict with a fair degree of safety that relationship will be found in other event of that nature. This reasoning process from individual cases to generalization is called inductive reasoning, and is reliable only on the condition that the general conclusion is based on observation of sufficient amount of individual event. In the case of the argument presented here,, however, the general characterization of ___________ is reached by citing only one single example, which is far from enough to render the conclusion as reliable and trustworthy.
调查错误 采样错误
When making general claims about a certain group, or “kind”, of people, we need to examine a sufficiently large and representative sample of the “kind” in question. To properly administer a questionnaire survey, a sample of the group should be selected, based on a carefully thought-out set of criteria, as representing all the people of the “kind” to be including in the generalization. Only in this way can we claim that what is true of the sample is very likely to be true of the group as a whole.
错误调查
The poll cited by the author is described in the vaguest possible terms. The ad does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or how the poll was conducted. Until these questions are answered, the survey results are worthless as evidence for public opinion about
错误关联
However, the evidence revealed in their research establishes only a positive correlation between ______ and the __________ ; it does not establish a causal connection between them. Other factors, such as ________ and _______could be responsible for
结尾
In its attempt to solve the problem, the company needs to consider all the factors affecting its profitability and weigh them over each other in order to make the optimal decision. If is fails to find out the real cause of its weakening profitability and acts on some plausible beliefs, the problem will never get effectively addressed.
结尾
Due to the fundamental flaw in the inductive reasoning process and severe lack of necessary information, the conclusion reached in the argument is highly suspicious and has little power to convince.
结尾
The argument would be strengthened if the author were to consider and rule out other significant factors that might have caused the increase in visits to the local art museum.
结尾
Based on the reasons I listed above, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence in support of the conclusion does little to prove the conclusion since it does not address the assumptions I have already raised. Ultimately, the argument might have been more convincing by making it clear that |
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