欧元点位分析

dingyipu

The euro opened at $1.3526 this morning following last night's
$1.3516 to $1.3535 range during the US session. The early risk-off tone coupled
with euro-yen's losses this morning drove euro-dollar down to an early low of
$1.3513. The pair however ran into demand from below the morning lows, and
euro-dollar then spent the rest of the session creeping back up in a mild
rebound. The pair's gains picked up a bit toward $1.3520 and it reached $1.3525
before turning around again. The gains resumed as euro-yen also recovered and
risk appetite improved, with euro-dollar then trading a fresh high for the
session at $1.3528. Initial resistance is noted at $1.3541 with stops noted
above $1.3550, $1.3580 and $1.3600. Stops have also been noted to the downside
at $1.3490 and below.

dingyipu

Euro found bids below 1.3515; some talk of buying are mostly option gamma play. As we move into Tokyo open, Euro firmed up towards 1.3520’s. We should see some offers in the 1.3550’s but understand that short–term accounts have stops in the 1.3580’s. We also hearing stops are building up 1.3490.

dingyipu

The Euro still trades heavily, without as yet really going anywhere. The quandary remains as to whether the market is again getting short towards the low of the multi month range or whether we are set to break and trend lower. The first inflection point which the market is very focused on is the 1.3503 low touched on the day of the June ECB meeting, followed by the YTD low at 1.3476 (early Feb). I am hoping and positioned for a break lower which I feel is justified by fundamentals on both sides of the equation but conscious of the numerous past frustrations. Ideally a break lower occurs today and I plan to add should 1.3500 give way or alternatively sell more ahead of 1.3575 resistance. Technically a weekly close below either or both the 1.3503 and 1.3476 levels mentioned would be very encouraging and suggest a chance of a trend extension towards 1.3300.

dingyipu

6月份低点1.3503/11面临的压力越来越大，汇价日内下破这两个低点、触及5个月新低的可能性很高。为期6天的下跌旗形整理形态在本周初完成後，汇价进一步走低；7月1日高点1.3701可能成为一个更低的高点，若汇价跌破6月低点将确认这一判断。跌破1.3503/11後，空头目标将直指2月低点1.3476、目前位於1.3468的长期上行趋势线。短期阻力位於1.3556/62，这意味著汇价反弹风险有限；更上方阻力关注1.3592。

dingyipu

Forward Looking Surveys Watched. Bearish. Watch: German IFO, M3, ECB bank lending survey, PMIs.We remain bearish on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY. EUR/USD has breached the lower end of the recent trading range, which, in our view, has provided a significant negative signal suggesting a move lower. This will highlight the broader bearish picture given that the European activity data has been disappointing and inflation remains low. This week we will be watching the German IFO and the PMIs for signs of further weakness.

dingyipu

still favour the single currency as a funder and are sticking to our core short position, desperately keeping discipline and refraining from selling the whole, whilst trading the downward grinding range.

zurgee

欧元跌了。。。

Dailycfdindex

丁总，明后天是否可抓一个反弹,   134502,     134124..       还是继续空降？   谢谢。

dingyipu

As planned we added to our conviction on a clean break of 1.3500; the reason for the move lower yesterday seems a little difficult to nail down as initial expectations of economic sanctions on Russia failed to materialise but EURUSD remained at its lows. We have seen increased activity in the past 24 hours in both spot and option space, with some initial excitement to add to shorts followed by interest to reduce later in the day. As we have argued since 1.3680 this will be a slow grind technical trade and as such little has changed for us. I continue to expect the move lower with bounces back to 1.3500/20 met with good supply.
Resistance:  1.3550, 1.3585
Support:  1.3460, 1.3400, 1.3296

ssamanthaa

路过,过来看看