日元点位分析

dingyipu

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dingyipu

JPY complex traded lower in Asia with follow-through to the upside lacking and the pullback in the
Nikkei following early gains weighing on sentiment. Longs chose to shed positions. In USD/JPY, options provided gravitational
pull with large-ish 101.50-60 strikes due to expire. From 101.70, it fell to 101.51. Offers from Japanese exporters
remain at 101.80 and trail up. Stops are mixed in above 101.80 and 102.00. US names and Japanese importers have
bids from 101.50. Stops are eyed sub-101.00. More large option expiries are eyed today at 101.90. EUR/JPY edged
down slowly from 137.53 to 137.34 and many now see tests towards the 136.25 low of the year on February 4. GBP/
JPY fell back a bit more from 174.26 to 173.91 despite the still bullish tone. AUD/JPY moved down from 95.23 to 94.93,
towards the top of its Ichimoku cloud at 94.87 and yesterday’s 94.86 low. NZD/JPY was the worst hit, off from 88.61 to
88.13 as more longs bailed on shifting central bank expectations post-CPI yesterday.

dingyipu

高盛看多USDJPY，止损101.20下方。

dingyipu

Yen traders debate how Asia will react to the day's events and if
this might mean new yen buying. Dollar-yen, at Y101.18, after trading in roughly
a Y101.20-30 range for over 2 hours, has finally broken below Y101.20 to post a
low of Y101.14, with some stops kicking in. The focus now is on the 55-week
moving average, which comes in at Y101.10 and the Y101.07 low from July 10.
There is strong demand ahead of Y101, where there is a barrier. Larger support
is seen in the Y100.75-85 zone, which contains the May 21 low at Y100.82 and the
2014 low of Y100.76, seen Feb 4. Larger stops are expected on a sub Y100.75
break

dingyipu

dingyipu 发表于 2014-7-18 08:07
Yen traders debate how Asia will react to the day's events and if
this might mean new yen buying. Do ...
谢谢加分：）EURJPY关注136.20/25，USDJPY关注100.70/80，AUDJPY关注200DMA 93.73Screenshot132.png(62.65 KB, 下载次数: 0)2014-7-18 09:40:53 上传
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dingyipu

dingyipu 发表于 2014-7-18 08:41
谢谢加分：）EURJPY关注136.20/25，USDJPY关注100.70/80，AUDJPY关注200DMA 93.73谢谢加分：）EURJPYThe cross traded a low of Y136.71 so far this morning, its lowest
since Feb 5, as risk aversion spikes after last night's developments in Ukraine
and Gaza. Euro-yen last at Y136.3, a few minutes after the BOJ minutes, with a
break below Y136.55 likely to encourage further losses, although there has been
reported demand at Y136.50 and stops below, with a break there to see the cross
take on the 2014 low of Y136.22 traded on Feb. 4.

dingyipu

UsdJpy touched 101.09 prior to Tokyo open and many traders saw bids planted in the main platform down to 101.05. UsdJpy started to move higher – we saw 2 of the major Japanese banks purchasing dollars from low teens into 101.20’s. Most of the Tokyo guys want to sell UsdJpy into 101.30’s and guess what? High so far 101.305! There are plenty of talks about who is on the bid or who did the buying and you will hear names like Kampo and Yucho. Into mid-morning, risk appetite improved; Nikkei pared losses and UsdJpy returned to print new highs.

dingyipu

The old risk on/off paradigm has come back into play over the past 24 hrs, galvanised by the tragic news late yesterday afternoon regarding the Malaysia airline flight over Ukraine. With details remaining very vague surrounding the incident, markets open the London session on a very nervous tone, with the majors hovering above pivotal levels, most notable EURUSD and USDJPY. Three genuine attempts at the 101.00 level since the end of June have now failed, however an escalation of the geo-political situation over the coming days leaves an air of inevitability about the outcome. We have closed our long USDJPY cash position given the recent events, leaving ourselves in a position to react to future developments. The key support below rest in the 101.00-100.70 band, which if broken opens up the psychological 100.00 level and a real threat for further capitulation lower.

dingyipu

汇价自亚市低点101.09开始的反弹或高度有限，位於101.44的阻力将打压汇价。101.44是101.79-101.09跌势的50%回档。短期来看，仍是空头在掌控者市场；若汇价回落至101.26、101.15下方，则101.06/101.09低点支持将再次回到市场焦点。只有有效上破101.44阻力才有可能令目前的反弹动能增强，届时汇价可能测试101.79高点。

dingyipu

JPY Strength on the Crosses. Bullish. Watch: Leading Index, Trade Balance, CPI.We expect JPY to remain supported, especially on the crosses, and expect USD/JPY to move down to 98 in the coming months. USD/JPY has been trading within tighter ranges, forming a triangle, which if it breaks, sends bearish JPY signals. Our economists expect the BoJ to ease in October; however, until then the likelihood is low, keeping JPY supported. JPY should also receive support as the broader risk environment starts to face challenges from higher global yields.