日元点位分析

dingyipu

Given the current environment and inevitable move in JPY on a sharp risk off move, currently short USDJPY, looking to re-assess on a move back above 101.75-80 – the level which has capped us last week with good gamma and exporter supply.

dingyipu

A softish inflation print in the US last night but the pair didn’t really react. BOJ deputy governor Nakaso states that the end of deflation is in sight, but again no reaction from the pair. I would deduce from recent price action that positioning in the pair is fairly light, given there is so much going on elsewhere in the G-10 space. I have therefore initiated a small long conviction as the lack of focus on the pair could lead to it sneaking higher. The bids lower seem robust and aren’t going away.
Resistance:  101.80, 102.25
Support:  101.10, 100.80

dingyipu

The levels on the topside remain the same with 101.75-85 broadly capping the recent range and the all-important 101.00 providing the support.

dingyipu

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USDJPY阅读权限: 70

dingyipu

*Y102.39/47 11 Jun high, 50% of Y104.12-100.82
*Y102.27 Post NFP spike high 3 Jul
*Y102.20 Medium offers
*Y102.10/15 System stops
*Y102.05/08 100 & 200-day ma's
*Y102.00 Exporter offers, stops (Y101.94 - 25 Jul high)
*Y101.85/90 Strong offers (Y101.86 - Asia high)
*Y101.81 ***Current mkt rate 0515GMT Monday
*Y101.75/71 Asia & 25 Jul lows
*Y101.68/61 5 & 21-day ma's
*Y101.50 Demand on approach (Y101.51 - 50% of Y101.09-101.94)
*Y101.42/32 24 & 23 Jul lows
*Y101.20 Medium demand (21 Jul low)
*Y101.16/09 55-week ma, 17 Jul low
*Y101.00 Semi-official demand on approach, barrier, stops

dingyipu

Demand from Japanese investors and weak/mixed data (jobs/retail sales) helped USDJPY grind through exporter offers and trade just shy of 102.00 overnight. Yesterday I flipped long USDJPY in expectation of broad USD buying into the GDP and FoMC tomorrow and of course Friday's jobs numbers. I stick with that long USD view although I accept moves above 102.00 will seem like even more of a grind than the one to get here. I am still looking for the pair to trade 102.20 and potentially 102.40 ahead of Friday's numbers. That said given the event risk before then, with GDP likely much more significant than the FED, I will be cautious and raise my stop to 101.65 for half my position and leave the remaining 50% at 1.01.50.  We are still range bound so it's tough to get excited but there are perhaps signs things are starting to change.

dingyipu

ANZ: The reason for JPY strength in August is due to a rise in Japanese investment income repatriation flows from their offshore debt holdings, principally those issued by the US government. In August this year, interest payments from US government debt will total USD42.7bn, of which roughly 19% is estimated to flow to Japanese investors (around USD8bn). August also happens to be the quietest periods in the FX market due to the northern hemisphere summer, which amplifies the flow effect

dingyipu

GS：Here we have also cut our positioning, with levels to watch: Support at 105.5 (stops located here), with resistance at 107.

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